US data surprised in its stability this week. Retail Sales came in line and while a slightly lower CPI did not discourage 90.6% of traders pricing no change in US interest rates into Fed Funds futures contracts. Remaining dollar data comes from less vulnerable areas of the economy and is not likely to spark significant re-pricing of expectations.
Levels to Watch: Range Top – 74.00 (50% Fib.)
                              Range Bottom – 71.50
Event Risk for the United States and Switzerland
US – The remaining items on this week’s calendar are unlikely to provide a significant spark to dollar trading. Thursday will see the release of March TIC data measuring capital inflows. The weaker dollar has helped make US assets cheaper and this metric showed marked improved last time around. May’s Empire Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed figures will help gauge if the improvements seen in recent Durable Goods Orders data signifies sustained reversal upward for the industrial sector. Friday’s housing data will likely be overlooked barring profound deviations from expectations as improvement here is likely to come last in a US recovery because of lingering psychological negativity.
Switzerland –The only remaining item left on the Swiss calendar will be March Retail Sales figures. As contagion from the US crisis spreads to the mountain nation via common trade links with the European Union, Swiss fundamentals have started to erode. Traders will look for evidence that this trend has trickled down to consumers.
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