The Taylor Rule With the upcoming FOMC meeting and as always the speculation of what might happen to interest rates I have decided to give you something to think about. The Taylor Rule is something that all good Fundamental Analysists use to project where the Fed might move rates. What is the Taylor rule? Central bankers consider a wide range of variables and economic indicators when setting interest rates. Essentially however, all central banks have the same basic objectives-economic growth running at potential and inflation on target at some specified […]
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Where is the Dollar Headed?
April 23, 2008 in Fundamental Analysis, General Information
The Euro has reached 1.60 to the U.S. dollar, and there’s currently no end in sight for the Euro’s strength. Speculators will continue to take the currency higher until the European Central Bank (ECB) starts to wince. That may not come for another several hundred pips. The dollar looks likely to continue falling and the euro to continue rising until either the U.S. or euro zone dramatically changes its policy or intervenes. Next week, the Federal Reserve will meet to set interest rates. A cut of only 25 bp would […]
CROX gets the Boot…
April 15, 2008 in Fundamental Analysis, General Information, Options, Trade/Risk Management
CROX- For traders who have portended the waning appeal of synthetic clog maker Crocs, today’s lowering of the company’s Q1 forecast on lower sales simply states a truth long deferred for the trend shoe – namely, that Crocs are a fad and that fads tend to fall by the wayside. To be sure, there’s something about the immediate 43% drop in Crocs share price to $10.14 that smacks of a pent-up desire to sell the stock. Peril is written all over the elevated implied volatility reading in Crocs options, which […]